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|
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 121152
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Francine, located inland over south-central Mississippi,
and on Tropical Depression Seven, located over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean.
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of
the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development of this system is not expected while it moves
westward at around 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a bit more concentrated in
association with a small area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, the proximity of dry
air near the system is expected to limit additional development
over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected
to become even less conducive over the weekend while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development
is possible during the early part of next week while the system
drifts to the north or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
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...FRANCINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 12
the center of Francine was located near 31.9, -90.1
with movement NNE at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
|
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
000
WTNT31 KNHC 121142
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
...FRANCINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 90.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued between Grand Isle,
Louisiana and the mouth of the Pearl River
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coasts of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, including Lake Maurepas, Lake
Pontchartrain, and metropolitan New Orleans.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* The mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Francine was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 90.1 West.
Francine is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected during the next day or
so, with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the
center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of
Mississippi through early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Francine is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next
several hours over portions of southeastern Louisiana, southeastern
and central Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama.
RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas,
Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Localized
amounts up to 10 inches are possible within rain bands over portions
of central and northern Alabama and over the Florida Panhandle. This
rainfall could lead to locally considerable flash and urban
flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly this morning
and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama.
SURF: Swells generated by Francine will continue to affect much of
the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
000
WTNT21 KNHC 120845
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 90.1W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 130SE 60SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 90.1W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 90.3W
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.6N 89.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 34.4N 90.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.1N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 90.1W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
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Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
000
WTNT41 KNHC 120848
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Francine has continued to rapidly weaken overnight while moving
inland across eastern Louisiana. The system is highly sheared due to
its interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest.
Francine is quickly losing tropical characteristics, and surface
observations indicate the surface center is located south and west
of the heaviest rainfall. Tropical storm conditions, especially in
gusts, continue over portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the
warning area. Earlier scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt offshore
winds, and the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.
The storm has slowed down a bit and is now moving northeastward at
about 10 kt. Francine is expected to turn north-northeastward and
northward today, bringing the center across central and northern
Mississippi. Continued weakening is expected, and tropical storm
conditions along the coasts of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi,
and Alabama are likely to subside this morning as the low weakens
and moves further inland. Given its degraded satellite structure,
Francine is likely to degenerate to a post-tropical low as early as
this morning, with dissipation forecast to occur by 48 h.
An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge during the next
several hours for portions of the eastern Louisiana and Mississippi
coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. Residents
in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local
officials.
2. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for coastal portions
of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where tropical
storm conditions could continue for the next few hours.
3. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and the
Southeast. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding is possible
today and tonight over portions of central and northern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 30.9N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 32.6N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/0600Z 34.4N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1800Z 35.1N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
000
FONT11 KNHC 120847
PWSAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JACKSON MS 34 24 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HOUMA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 11:44:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 09:23:01 GMT
|
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 09:23:27 GMT
|
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 09:48:52 GMT
|
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 11:43:30 GMT
|
...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...
As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 12
the center of Seven was located near 17.3, -33.0
with movement WNW at 17 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
|
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
000
WTNT32 KNHC 120846
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 33.0W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 33.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed
is anticipated over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression could become a tropical storm later today.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
|
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
000
WTNT22 KNHC 120845
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.0W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.0W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 32.3W
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.1N 34.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.0N 43.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 20.7N 45.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.2N 47.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 33.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
000
WTNT42 KNHC 120846
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024
The system has changed little in organization overnight, with
limited deep convection and slight banding features. An
AMSR-2 microwave image suggested that the circulation was still
somewhat broad since the cloud bands were not very tightly curved.
Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35 kt
and T2.0/30 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity is held at 30
kt given the depression's lack of increased organization. This is
also in agreement with a DMINT objective intensity estimate from
UW-CIMSS based on the AMSR data.
The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading with an
estimated motion of 290/15 kt. A gradually weakening ridge over the
eastern subtropical Atlantic should maintain this general motion
with decreasing forward speed over the next 2-3 days. Later in the
forecast period, an amplifying trough is expected to erode the
ridge, which should cause the cyclone to turn at least a little to
the right. The track guidance becomes somewhat divergent in the 4-
to 5-day time frame, but is in overall agreement on a rather slow
motion. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC
prediction and close to the various dynamical model consensus
solutions.
Environmental conditions seem fairly conducive for at least gradual
strengthening during the next few days, with low- to
moderate-vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs. However, the
models are not very bullish on strengthening until near the end of
the forecast period. This may be due to a somewhat stable air mass
over the eastern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the Decay-SHIPS model guidance through 72 hours, but
shows no change after that time given the uncertainties in intensity
prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 17.3N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 18.1N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 20.0N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.7N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 21.2N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
|
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
000
FONT12 KNHC 120846
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 08:49:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 09:29:02 GMT
|
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